ADB sees Indian economy growing at 10%

Dubai - The latest economic growth projection for India is lower than the 11 per cent growth forecast in the ADO in April this year.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday revised down its growth projection for the Indian economy to10 per cent during the current fiscal (2021-22) as it lowered developing Asia's economic growth to 7.2 per cent this year, citing the resurgence of Covid-19 infections in the region.

The Manila-based ADB said in its flagship economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, released on Tuesday that recovery was underway in "developing Asia", referring to the bank's 46 members, including China and India.

In 2022, the bloc's combined economy is projected to expand 5.4 per cent compared with the April forecast of 5.3 per cent.

The latest economic growth projection for India is lower than the 11 per cent growth forecast in the ADO in April this year. The bank maintained its growth forecast for China at 8.1 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent in 2022.

However, for the next fiscal 2022-23, ADB has, in the latest supplement, raised the economic growth projection for India to 7.5 per cent from 7.0 per cent estimated earlier.

“Asia and the Pacific’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic continues, although the path remains precarious amid renewed outbreaks, new virus variants, and an uneven vaccine rollout,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “On top of containment and vaccination measures, phased and strategic rejuvenation of economic activities — for instance, trade, manufacturing, and tourism — will be key to ensure that the recovery is green, inclusive, and resilient.”

The Covid-19 pandemic remains the biggest risk to the outlook, as outbreaks continue in many economies. Daily confirmed cases in the region peaked at about 434,000 in mid-May. They narrowed to about 1,09,000 at the end of June, concentrated mainly in South Asia, South-East Asia, and the Pacific. Meanwhile, the vaccine roll-out in the region is gaining pace, with 41.6 doses administered per 100 people by the end of June — above the global average of 39.2, but below rates of 97.6 in the US and 81.8 in the European Union.

In Southeast Asia, the ADB revised 2021 growth forecasts to 4.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent for Indonesia; 2.0 per cent from 3.0 per cent for Thailand; 5.5 per cent from 6.0 per cent for Malaysia; and 5.8 per cent from 6.7 per cent for Vietnam.

It raised Singapore's growth projection for this year to 6.3 per cent from 6.0 per cent, but kept the growth outlook for the Philippines at 4.5 per cent.

For 2022, the ADB maintained its growth forecasts for most Southeast Asian economies: 5.0 per cent for Indonesia, 5.7 per cent for Malaysia, 5.5 per cent for the Philippines, 4.1 per cent for Singapore, and 7.0 per cent for Vietnam.

But it raised the growth projection for Thailand to 4.9 per cent for next year from 4.5 per cent.

"On top of containment and vaccination measures, phased and strategic rejuvenation of economic activities - for instance, trade, manufacturing, and tourism - will be key to ensure that the recovery is green, inclusive, and resilient," Sawada said.

—issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com